This presentation explores the role of epidemiological modelling in shaping health policy and programming in South Africa. It begins by defining epidemiological modelling and discussing its use in estimating disease trends through various modelling approaches.

A key focus is the Thembisa Integrated Demographic and HIV Model, which draws on multiple HIV data sources for calibration. The presentation highlights critical indicators such as HIV incidence, prevalence, life expectancy, engagement in care, and mortality, particularly among individuals aged 15 – 49. It also examines HIV’s contribution to tuberculosis mortality and includes examples from other dynamic models used in South Africa.

The aim is to demonstrate how data-driven insights can guide effective health interventions and policy decisions.