AIDS Models
All models and data are used at the user’s own discretion and the user has the responsibility to check that the application of the model is appropriate. The Actuarial Society of South Africa does not take responsibility for errors or omissions in the models.
ASSA HIV Sub-population Model 2023
ASSA released its 2023 HIV sub-population model (SPM), hereafter “ASSA SPM2023”, to address limitations of previous ASSA SPMs such as ASSASelect or PGN105 models (released in the early 2000s).
ASSA2008
The ASSA2008 model was released in March of 2011, and is the most recent version of the ASSA AIDS and Demographic model to be released. The most significant changes to the previous version of the model are greater estimates of the impact of antiretroviral treatment in recent years, as well as significant increases in levels in condom usage over the last decade.
Older Models
The ASSA2003 model was preceded by the ASSA2003, ASSA2002, ASSA2000, ASSA600 and ASSA500 models.
Other Countries
The ASSA2003 and the Older Models are designed and calibrated for South Africa. The Actuarial Society of South Africa also develops models for other countries.
ASSA Select
The ASSA Select model is a model that can be used to assess the impact of HIV/AIDS on workforce populations and other groups that have been selected in some way from the general population. The most recent version of the model to be published was published in June of 2006. Click here to view the ASSA Select model
An outline of the Modelling of the HIV and AIDS epidemic by actuaries in South Africa is given below:
- The Actuarial Society of South Africa’s Demography and Epidemiology committee is releasing its 2023 HIV sub-population model (SPM), hereafter “ASSA SPM2023”, to address limitations of previous ASSA SPMs such as ASSASelect or PGN105 models (released in the early 2000s). Please review the Member Communication below for more information.
ASSA HIV Sub-population Model 2023:
- Proprietary model
- Developed by Peter Doyle and Donald Miller
- Released: 1989
- The most significant changes to the previous version of the model are greater estimates of the impact of antiretroviral treatment in recent years, as well as significant increases in levels in condom usage over the last decade.
- Released 2011
Note for download: You will require a password to download any of the following 2 models. Please request a password from memberservices@actuarialsociety.org.za
Once you have received a password via email from the Society you will be allowed to download the models only ones.
Summary:
- The model was primarily designed to make the users more aware of the impact of AIDS on mortality, and only modelled a hypothetical population.
- Released: 1996
- ASSA500
- Calibrated with latest antenatal clinical and mortality data.
- Released: 2000
- ASSA2000Lite
- ASSA2000Full
- The impact of five HIV and AIDS prevention and treatment programmes were modelled. The model allowed the user to assess the impact of HIV related information and education, improved treatment of sexually transmitted diseases, voluntary counselling and testing, prevention of mother-to-child-transmission and antiretroviral treatment.
- Released: 2004
- ASSA2002Lite
- ASSA2002Full
- Model extended to assess the differential impact of AIDS in the different provinces of South Africa, as well as differences between provinces in the extent of antiretroviral treatment rollout.
- Note for download: You will require a password to download any of the following models. Please request a password from memberservices@actuarialsociety.org.za
For technical assistance with these models please contact:
Marc Burgess: mburgess@rgare.com
To obtain the file download password please contact:
ASSA Office: memberservices@actuarialsociety.org.za
