Demography & Epidemiology Committee


The Demography and Epidemiology committee of the Actuarial Society of South Africa aims to assist the profession and society in assessing and addressing the impact of HIV and other diseases in South Africa.  The committee develops and maintains AIDS and demographic models and provides advice on the application of these models. The committee is currently revising its HIV and demographic subpopulation model.

Current members

The 2016 members of the Demography & Epidemiology Committee are: Lee Sarkin (chair), Barbra Machikicho, Brendon Lapham, Bryden Barker, Helen Coetzee, Jannie Coffee, Jivko Binev, Marc Burgess, Matthew Brinckmann, Simba Chinyani


The objectives of the Demography & Epidemiology Committee include:

  • HIV and AIDS related demographic research and modelling
  • To educate individuals on HIV related issues
  • To provide HIV related tools and guidance
  • To inform the debate around HIV and AIDS
  • To assist policymakers to understand the implications of decisions by using the AIDS models

Background to the Demography & Epidemiology Committee

The ASSA Demography & Epidemiology committee was set up in 1987 to assist various stakeholders in estimating the impact of the HIV epidemic on South Africa. Realistic current and future estimates of the HIV epidemic’s impact inform strategic decisions for business and policy. At that stage, discussions included “doomsday” scenarios for insurers with concerns of inadequate reserves. Fortunately, people like Peter Doyle took the initiative by visiting hospitals and gathering patient records of early cases of HIV infection and set about to build a model of projecting various estimates of the national HIV epidemic. He collaborated with others to develop the first demographic model of the national epidemic and later released it in 1989.

An outline of the Modelling of the HIV and AIDS epidemic by actuaries in South Africa is given on the AIDS Models page. Please click here if you have been assigned a login for this page: AIDS Models 

All models and data are used at the user’s own discretion and the user have the responsibility to check that the application of the model is appropriate. The Actuarial Society of South Africa do not take responsibility for errors or omissions in the models.