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AIDS Models

All models and data are used at the user’s own discretion and the user have the responsibility to check that the application of the model is appropriate. The Actuarial Society of South Africa do not take responsibility for errors or omissions in the models.

ASSA2008

The ASSA2008 model was released in March of 2011, and is the most recent version of the ASSA AIDS and Demographic model to be released. The most significant changes to the previous version of the model are greater estimates of the impact of antiretroviral treatment in recent years, as well as significant increases in levels in condom usage over the last decade.

Older Models

The ASSA2003 model was preceded by the ASSA2003, ASSA2002, ASSA2000, ASSA600 and ASSA500 models.

Other Countries

The ASSA2003 and the Older Models are designed and calibrated for South Africa. The Actuarial Society of South Africa also develops models for other countries.

ASSA Select

The ASSA Select model is a model that can be used to assess the impact of HIV/AIDS on workforce populations and other groups which have been selected in some way from the general population. The most recent version of the model to be published was published in June of 2006. Click here to view the ASSA Select model

An outline of the Modelling of the HIV and AIDS epidemic by actuaries in South Africa is given below:

  • Metropolitan Model:
    • Proprietary model
    • Developed by Peter Doyle and Donald Miller
    • Released: 1989
  • ASSA500:
    • Summary: The model was primarily designed to make the users more aware of the impact of AIDS on mortality, and only modelled a hypothetical population.
    • Released: 1996
    • ASSA500
  • ASSA600:
    • Designed to model the impact on the country as a whole.
    • Released:1999
    • ASSA600
  • ASSA2002:
    • The impact of five HIV and AIDS prevention and treatment programmes were modelled. The model allowed the user to assess the impact of HIV related information and education, improved treatment of sexually transmitted diseases, voluntary counselling and testing, prevention of mother-to-child-transmission and antiretroviral treatment.
    • Released: 2004
    • ASSA2002Lite
    • ASSA2002Full
  • ASSA2003:
    • Model extended to assess the differential impact of AIDS in the different provinces of South Africa, as well as differences between provinces in the extent of antiretroviral treatment rollout.
    • ASSA2003Lite
    • ASSA2003Full
    • ASSA2003Lite Botswana
  • ASSA2008
    • The most significant changes to the previous version of the model are greater estimates of the impact of antiretroviral treatment in recent years, as well as significant increases in levels in condom usage over the last decade.
    • Released 2011
    • ASSA2008Lite
    • ASSA2008Full
For access to the online AIDS models, please contact Jenilee on 021 5097820 / jblignaudt@actuarialsociety.org.za.